Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Thoughts on "The most awesomest exciting ultra-Super Tuesday ever!"

11:30 PM- Well, Georgia just went to Huckabee, who's continued his strong day. McCain's come back in Missouri and is leading early in California, but we won't know about that until tomorrow. Romney and Obama have both won a few more states to bring them back, but it seems like most people are pegging McCain as the winner, pending California. That should be about it for the night, the action's pretty much died down. Hope you all got out and voted- good night and go McCain!

10:00 PM-
It's been a good night for John McCain, with wins in New York, Connecticut, Illinois, Delaware and New Jersey (and now Oklahoma) while opponent Romney has only carried Massachusetts and Utah. Huckabee's having a much better day than anyone could've expected, with West Virginia and Arkansas and leads in Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri, and Georgia. Hilary's win in Massachusetts was huge after most political figures in the state supported Barack, and she weathered the storm in New York. Barack's doing alright himself, though, with wins in Illinois, Georgia, and Alabama (and now North Dakota).

Basically, the state of the election is that Hilary has seemingly staved off Barack's charge and had a good day, while on the GOP side, Romney's fading and Huckabee's gaining, but McCain, if he wins California, could finish the day as a near-decisive winner. He just came on and said that, as they've been saying, it's a two man race- and he's one of those two men. I'm a little disappointed at that, because he would've made a great running mate for McCain- it would add votes among conservatives while not giving him any real power. Now, with him doing so well, he might end up trying to take McCain to the wire. Like I said, though, if McCain wins decisively in California tonight and maybe catches up in one of the states Huckabee leads in (he's close in Tennessee), he should have the nomination fairly well wrapped up.

8:20 PM-
Results continue to come in- Hilary has Oklahoma, Romney gets his home state of Massachusetts, McCain gets New Jersey and Connecticut, and Obama gets his home state of Illinois. No big surprises there, but one shocker is how well Obama's doing in Clinton's yard up in the northeast- he's dead even or leading Clinton in Connecticut and New Jersey, while reports from a classmate's friends in the area (based on what they've seen of exit polls) suggest he's doing well against her in Mass. and New York. Rough going now for Hilary- we'll see how things develop.

7:05 PM-
Georgia results have come in, and CNN quickly declared Barack Obama the winner. They weren't showing any districts reporting, so exit polls must have been pretty decisive- look for a Barack blowout there, which was pretty much expected after his decisive win in SC. Meanwhile, the Republicans are listed in a "tight three-way race"- looks like we'll be waiting a bit on those results, but the fact that it's a three-way race is surprising; McCain wasn't supposed to really be in this.

5:30 PM-
About an hour and a half still until the Georgia polls close. Don't expect much from McCain there- his best hope is really another Huckabee win, with isn't that far-fetched. Meanwhile, Romney's pretty pissed about West Virginia- check out the remarks afterward (courtesy of CNN.com):

"Unfortunately, this is what Sen. McCain's inside Washington ways look like: He cut a backroom deal with the tax-and-spend candidate he thought could best stop Gov. Romney's campaign of conservative change," read a statement from Romney campaign manager Beth Myers.

Huckabee, though, wasn't having anything with that. The man may want to abolish the IRS and set up colonies for AIDS victims, but he can sure talk political smack:

"I thought he was saying yesterday, 'No whining.' So is it no whining or whining? He can't even keep a straight answer on the 'whining or no whining' question," Huckabee said.

"There was no backroom deal," he added. "There wasn't even a front room deal. There was no deal."

Romney's had a rough day elsewhere, too. CNN reported that, after Bob Dole wrote a letter to Rush Limbaugh defending him as a true conservative, Romney said that Dole was "probably the last person I would have wanted to have write a letter for me." McCain came back, saying, "This is no way to end up this campaign, by attacking a genuine American war hero," and requesting Romney apologize.

Romney did eventually respond by saying he thought of Dole as an "American hero" and that he'd love the former candidate's support, but didn't really give a reason why he changed his tune so quickly and dratically. Huckabee would probably add here that Romney can't even keep straight on the "Dole or No Dole" question.

I'll keep at this when more results get in, stay tuned- and remember to vote!

2:45 PM- First results in for Super Tuesday, and Mike Huckabee gets the 18 delegates from West Virginia. Bit of a surprise, as he won on the second ballot but Romney had taken 41% of the first-ballot vote- does this mean McCain/Paul Republicans identify more with Huckabee? Or just that there is so much friction between the leading two candidates that they'd rather see anyone but Romney win? (Update, 4pm: Looks like the second guess was right, according to this article on CNN- McCain supporters wanted to keep the state from Romney) Interesting to see if the trend continues anywhere else today. Personally, I'm fine with Huckabee taking the state- the more states he and Romney split where McCain doesn't really have a shot (he polled around 10% on the first ballot), the better McCain's chances. On a related note, a lot of candidates are looking at the country's tax system reform- it was especially a major issue for Ron Paul and Rudy Giuliani (the "one page tax form"). But doesn't this Huckabee idea seem just a little over-the-top?




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